The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecasted that US crude oil production in 2018 will average 10.7 million barrels per day, the highest annual average since 1970, when crude oil production had averaged 9.6 million barrels per day. In 2019, the EIA forecasts crude oil production to average 11.3 million barrels per day.
As the image below shows, Permian production is expected to drive this growth. Its production is forecast to increase by 515,000 barrel per day between June 2017 and December 2018. The Federal Gulf of Mexico is also expected to support this growth, with production expected to increase by 344,000 barrels per day.
Drilling productivity report: March 2018
In its March 2018 drilling productivity report, the EIA estimated that oil production is expected to rise by 80,000 barrels per day in the Permian in April 2018 (versus March 2018). The region with the second-highest production growth forecast is the Eagle Ford, where production is expected to grow by 23,000 barrels per day in April.
Total oil production at major US shales is expected to rise by 131,000 barrels per day in April 2018 versus March 2018, implying that ~61% of that growth will come from the Permian Basin. In the next part of this series, we’ll discuss trends and forecasts in US crude oil production.