SB 18 embodies policies that have already been implemented in several other states. Two of those states – California and Colorado – have significant amounts of oil and gas production. Oil and gas production has fallen by over 6% per year in California and by 2% per year in Colorado since the introduction of these policies. The table below illustrates the potential impacts on state and local revenue from the oil and gas industry if production in New Mexico falls by 2% per year or by 6% per year.
| Table 1 Annual Revenue Change Million dollars |
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| 2% Per Year Decrease in Production | 6% Per Year Decrease in Production | |||||
| Fiscal Year | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
| General Fund Operating | -$53 | -$439 | -$1,976 | -$160 | -$3,126 | -$6,766 |
| General Fund Reserves | -$312 | -$1,168 | -$1,034 | -$937 | -$1,700 | -$1,034 |
| Severance Tax Bonds | -$143 | -$534 | -$803 | -$430 | -$1,603 | -$1,745 |
| Permanent Fund | -$183 | -$681 | -$1,023 | -$548 | -$2,042 | -$2,223 |
| Local Government | -$48 | -$180 | -$270 | -$145 | -$540 | -$588 |
| Total State & Local Revenue | -$740 | -$3,002 | -$5,106 | -$2,220 | -$9,012 | -$12,356 |
| Percent change from baseline | -5% | -20% | -28% | -16% | -60% | -67% |
| Per Capita Impacts | -$347.41 | -$1,340.05 | -$2,163.44 | -$1,042.23 | -$4,023.19 | -$5,235.66 |
| Per Taxpayer Impacts | -$725.47 | -$2,805.34 | -$4,558.69 | -$2,176.41 | -$8,422.38 | -$11,032.29 |
In FY 2025, the industry delivered $2.4 billion in funding for K–12 and higher education. A 2% drop in production could result in $740 million less state and local revenue, resulting in a cut of nearly one‑third of the state’s education budget.
The same 2% decline would cost each New Mexico an estimated $725—equal to a $3,600 loss for a family of five.
- Research by Thomas E. Clifford, PhD with the New Mexico Tax Research Institute
