U.S. predicts that crude production will rise to 13.1M barrels a day in 2020

May 21, 2019

James Osborne | Houston Chronicle | May 7, 2019

U.S. oil production will hit 13.1 million barrels a day in 2020, the Energy Information Administration says in a new forecast.

That's a 19 percent increase over last year's average of 11 million barrels a day, with the forecast projecting most of the gains will come from the Permian Basin, which spans West Texas and Eastern New Mexico.

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The growth comes amid improved oil prices following a 2014 crash in crude prices brought on by a U.S. oil boom driven by advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology.

EIA predicted the global benchmark Brent would average $65 a barrel this year and $62 a barrel in 2020, down from $71 a barrel in 2018. Though the agency warned:

"There is significant price uncertainty. The current values of futures and options contracts suggest a 31% probability [the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate] prices could exceed $65 per barrel
in July and a 15% probability they could fall below $55/b."

Natural gas production is also expected to increase. EIA is forecasting dry natural gas production will average 92.5 billion cubic feet a day in 2020, an 11 percent increase over last year's average.